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Live /The Daily Actuary · No. 299 /Monday, October 26, 2026 /
Featured Analysis · P&C

Black October Tests Cyber Insurers Against Uncensored AI Attack Tools

By Sam Editor · October 26, 2026 · 12 min read

A week of PHP2Shell, the Railway and OpenCode credential thefts and an uncensored DeepSeek model shows open-weight AI driving attack frequency, as the NAIC reports US cyber loss ratios rising while rates still fall.

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This Week’s Analysis

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  1. MonP&CBlack October Tests Cyber Insurers Against Uncensored AI Attack Tools

Today's Original Analysis

7 pieces in today's edition
P&C

Chubb Calls Post-2022 Casualty Green as Munich Re Flags 2022 to 2025

Q3 2026 releases at Chubb, Travelers and RLI come from short-tail lines while long-tail casualty runs flat to adverse in 2019 to 2022, 2023 on is called too green to touch, and Munich Re flags 2022 to 2025. Oct 26
6 min
Technology & AIOct 26 · 4 min

Chubb's Greenberg Says Casualty Books Have Not Priced AI Liability

Chubb CEO Evan Greenberg said on October 21 that AI liability is not contemplated in casualty underwriting to date and will be met with clarifications, exclusions and separate covers, as casualty pricing rose 5.7%. Technology & AIOct 26 · 7 min

Anthropic's Code Review Layers Fit ASOP 56 Until the Rollback Step

The Claude Code team merged twice as many PRs with 40% fewer reverts behind seven review layers. Five map onto ASOP 56 testing, validation, review and governance; staged release and rollback have no actuarial match. P&COct 26 · 4 min

Marsh Index Falls 5% for Ninth Quarter as US Excess Casualty Rises 13%

Marsh's global index fell 5% in Q3 2026, a ninth straight quarterly decline, with property down 10% and casualty up 1%. The US composite's 1% dip hides property down 10% against excess casualty up 13%. ReinsuranceOct 26 · 5 min

Munich Re Lifts 2026 Target to €6.6B as Major Losses Run Below Budget

Munich Re lifted 2026 profit guidance to €6.6 billion on a preliminary Q3 net result of about €1.7 billion, earned on major losses below budget rather than rate, ahead of a January renewal it expects to soften. P&COct 26 · 5 min

Selective Records No Casualty Development as Cat Points Hit 5.4

Selective's Q3 2026 combined ratio improved 1.8 points to 96.8% as 3.3 points of casualty development removed and 3.3 cat points added cancel, leaving the gain in the underlying loss ratio of a 7% smaller book. ReinsuranceOct 23 · 6 min

Berkley Warns Casualty Sidecar Fine Print Decides Who Holds the Tail

W. R. Berkley's CEO told analysts to read casualty sidecar fine print for forced commutation and the security behind it, as AM Best counts over $2 billion raised since 2024 and ties its tail-risk charge to exit terms.
“ Q3 2026 releases at Chubb, Travelers and RLI come from short-tail lines while long-tail casualty runs flat to adverse in 2019 to 2022, 2023 on is called too green to touch, and Munich Re flags 2022 to 2025. — Sam, in today's edition

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