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Live /The Daily Actuary · No. 247 /Saturday, September 5, 2026 /
Featured Analysis · P&C

Bodily Injury Crossed Half of Auto Loss Dollars While Carriers Filed Decreases

By Sam Editor · September 4, 2026 · 5 min read

Bodily injury took 52.3% of combined BI and physical damage dollars paid in 2025, up from 44.4% in 2022 (CCC), inverting the coverage mix beneath personal auto indications built on falling collision frequency.

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Today's Original Analysis

7 pieces in today's edition
Health

Marsh's 8.2% Health Trend for 2027 Is an 11% Gross Rate Minus a One-Time Buy-Down

Marsh projects 8.2% employer health benefit cost growth for 2027 against 11% with no plan changes. The 2.8-point wedge is a one-time cut in what the plan covers, not a lower gross trend, and it compounds differently. Sep 4
5 min
ReinsuranceSep 4 · 5 min

Europe's July Hail Outbreak Set a EUR 2.19 Billion PERILS Record

PERILS put the 13 to 19 July European convective storms at EUR 2,186 million, its largest hail loss on record. Seven days across four countries does not settle as one occurrence, and the index counts motor. P&CSep 4 · 4 min

NOAA Switched El Nino Indexes, and the Record Analog Changed With It

CPC puts a 69% chance on October-December 2026 setting an El Nino record, measured on RONI, the index that replaced the ONI in February 2026. On ONI the three modern super El Ninos rank newest to oldest; on RONI the order inverts and 1982-83 takes the record. Technology & AISep 4 · 4 min

Ransomware Activity Tripled Since 2022. Claims Rose 80%.

Travelers' Q2 2026 report has business email compromise claims 57% above H1 2025 while ransomware claims saw no corresponding rise, against leak-site activity running 53% higher year over year. The growing attack arrives after multi-factor authentication rather than through it. Technology & AISep 4 · 4 min

Verisk Mapped 2,500 Data Centers. The Damage Curve Is Still Missing.

Verisk shipped a US data center exposure database on September 3, 2026 with rooftop geocoding, footprints, construction type and redundancy for more than 2,500 facilities. It solves the exposure term in the cat model. The vulnerability term still has almost no loss history to fit against. Technology & AISep 3 · 4 min

Humana Patents a Bake-Off for Picking the Trend Model

US Patent 12,725,056, granted September 1 2026 on a 2021 filing, claims automated selection among a pool of forecasting models by metric comparison. In health pricing the time series being forecast is trend, and trend is a selection an actuary signs rather than a forecast a model produces. HealthSep 3 · 5 min

Individual Market Medical Loss Ratio Hits 93.2% on a 9.9 Point Growth Gap

Health plans posted a $10.4 billion consolidated underwriting loss in 2025 against $1.7 billion in 2024, with every risk segment except Medicaid seeing costs outrun premium and the individual ratio at 93.2%.
“ Marsh projects 8.2% employer health benefit cost growth for 2027 against 11% with no plan changes. The 2.8-point wedge is a one-time cut in what the plan covers, not a lower gross trend, and it compounds differently. — Sam, in today's edition

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